Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy
Regular Contributors:  Herman Daly, Brian Czech, Brent Blackwelder, and Rob Dietz. Guest authors by invitation.

Are People Smarter Than Chipmunks?

by Rob Dietz

A curious thing happened recently when I was driving home from a weekend camping trip with my daughter in the Cascade Mountains. We came around a tight curve and the road opened into a long straightaway. Far up ahead, I could see a small animal perched right on top of the double yellow line that divides the lanes. As we got a bit closer, I recognized it as a chipmunk and asked my daughter if she could see it (spotting animals is a favorite pastime on car and bike rides).

As our vehicle was bearing down on the little critter, it looked up and started to head toward the left shoulder of the road. But, obeying some muddled directive from its brain, it spun around and started heading to the right. Not content with that change of direction, it went back left again. I honked the horn to make sure it knew we were getting close. The chipmunk then proceeded to do an erratic dance, leaning left then right then left again. Finally, it just sat back down in the middle of the road atop the double yellow line. The wheels of our car whizzed by its delicate body at a speed that the chipmunk couldn’t grasp.


Care to guess which one's the smartest?


Checking the rear-view mirror, I saw it saunter to the side of the road and stroll into the woods, looking completely unfazed by its brush with disaster. After witnessing this eccentric behavior, I began wondering why the chipmunk would behave so illogically. It didn’t take too long to realize that it simply doesn’t possess the right equipment to understand the threat posed by a car. A chipmunk’s brain and the behavior produced by it are the result of ages of natural selection – a process that took place in the absence of roads and cars. The mind of a chipmunk, therefore, is incapable of properly interpreting the data coming its way, especially when it’s coming at 60 miles per hour.

The chipmunk’s maladaptive behavior has some prominent parallels with our own predicament. The data are approaching us at a fast and furious clip. We have ample and disturbing evidence about climate destabilization, dwindling energy resources, social breakdowns, and a host of environmental maladies. We know that the economy is a subsystem of the finite planet, and that increasing the scale of the economy impinges on the earth’s ecosystems. In an age of biodiversity die-offs and political buy-offs, however, we don’t seem to possess the wherewithal to interpret the data correctly.

A few years ago, Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert wrote a fascinating opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times (July 2, 2007). In the article, he brilliantly summarizes some shortcomings of the human brain when it comes to interpreting the danger posed by global warming. He notes that the human brain evolved to respond to threats with four features, features that the threat of global warming lacks:

  1. We respond to threats with a human face. To quote Gilbert: “If climate change had been visited on us by a brutal dictator or an evil empire, the war on warming would be this nation’s top priority.”
  2. We respond to threats that outrage our moral sensibilities and that produce a sense of repulsion or disgust in us. Gilbert: “The fact is that if climate change were caused by… the practice of eating kittens, millions of protesters would be massing in the streets.”
  3. We respond to immediate threats that are right in front of us. “We haven’t quite gotten the knack of treating the future like the present it will soon become because we’ve only been practicing for a few million years. If global warming took out an eye every now and then, OSHA would regulate it into nonexistence.”
  4. We respond to threatening changes around us that happen rapidly. “Because we barely notice changes that happen gradually, we accept gradual changes that we would reject if they happened abruptly.”

For most of us, economic growth is an even tougher threat to interpret and take seriously than global warming (even though the former is a root cause of the latter). As Bill McKibben highlighted in his book Deep Economy, bigger and better used to go hand in hand, economically speaking. But over generations, the consequences of exponential economic growth have outstripped the benefits. What used to be a boon is now a bane, and the threat is upon us; overgrown economies are undermining the life-support systems of the planet, but we simply aren’t sensing it and responding appropriately.

It’s no simple feat to determine when an economy has reached its optimal size – the inflection point when it should transition from growth to a steady state. An individual organism (e.g., a chipmunk or a person) has an unconscious and almost magical ability to do this, to stop growing and become a grownup. Human economies don’t possess the same unconscious when-to-stop mechanism. The people who make up the economy must collectively decide to reach maturity consciously.

The question now is how much longer humanity will choose to sit on the double yellow line as the consequences of runaway growth scream down the road at us doing a zillion miles per hour. Or to paraphrase, are people smarter than chipmunks?

Epitaph for the Poles?

by Brian Czech

Note: This Daly News article will also serve as the foreword to Protection of Polar Regions (Springer Japan, edited by Falk Huettmann, release date early 2011)

An Epitaph for the Poles, North and South, might one day read:

How they graced Planet Earth, anchoring magnetic fields. They were wedded to Auroras, Borealis and Australis. With their wildly extreme environs, the Poles were evolutionary crucibles for spectacular life-forms. They inspired the greatest of adventurers, then punished them severely for their trespasses. Yet they were good for many who never knew them. Along with the atmosphere and the rainforests, they moderated the Peoples’ climate for 2 million years. Then a dangerous game of growth was played and the polar team lost: Wall Street Bulls,$75 trillion GDP – Polar Bears, 0.

Note that the game is far along already; global GDP is about $62 trillion. So when they decided to write Protection of Polar Regions, what were the authors thinking? Most folks have already given up on polar protection. Polar bears are leading a long, sad procession of species off the poles, into the darkness of extinction. The list of polar contaminants increases with each new study. Nations and oil companies are staking their claims on the oceanic oilfields, newly accessible amidst the melting ice. Perhaps the best summary of polar problems is, “Etcetera, etcetera.”

You might then wonder, why even include a question mark in “Epitaph for the Poles?” Why not just pronounce them dead and crack open a beer?

Because of the people who wrote Protection of Polar Regions, starting with the editor, Falk Huettmann. Huettmann, who also authored and co-authored several chapters, is among a new generation of ecologists who grasp the big picture, not only ecologically but economically and politically. In particular, they recognize that economic growth is destroying Earth’s great ecosystems, even biomes.

In addition to their scientific specialties, these authors know that the causes of biodiversity loss are a Who’s Who of the global economy. They know that fossil-fueled economic growth is tantamount to climate change. They know that talk of economic growth based on alternative fuels is low octane and 99% talk. They know that international diplomacy on capping emissions is stalled on grounds of economic growth. They know quite a bit, and their knowledge is steeped in sound science.

I hesitated to write a foreword to this scientifically rigorous book, as my admiration for science is ebbing. Incredibly expensive ecological studies have done incredibly little to stem the tide of environmental degradation. Too few researchers have taken their ecological expertise – their knowledge of the economy of nature – and applied it to the machinations of the human economy, or even to educating the public and policy makers on the tradeoffs they face between economic growth and environmental protection. Some ecologists have even sold out on the economy of nature and bought into the oxymoronic rhetoric of “sustainable growth.”

Huettmann is an exception, and so is Protection of Polar Regions. This book begins and ends by clarifying the fact that all the science in the world won’t save the poles – that includes the “Third Pole” (Tibetan Plateau) – unless human populations and their per capita consumption stabilize. This makes it easy for the reader to connect most of the chapters in Protection with the perils of economic growth.

In the chapter on polar contamination, by Martin Riddle and Susan Kutz, readers will reflect upon the sources of the contaminants; i.e., almost invariably byproducts of economic production. Reading the chapter by Vassily Spiridonov and colleagues about protected areas, one can reflect, “protected from what?” and know the answer, “From the economy.” For some chapters, the connection to economic growth won’t take any imagination whatsoever, as with the chapter on new shipping lanes and Big Oil by Grant Humphries and Huettmann.

In other words, this is a book in which the reader will seldom be far from recognizing the root problem. This makes it a book worth forewording. It also makes it a book worth circulating.

My sincere hope is that readers will follow the lead of Huettmann and company and do more than study the problem to death. That only leads to epitaphs and eulogies. The challenge to polar protection (and atmospheric, rainforest, etc. protection) is far less technical than economic. But economic policy reform isn’t for the faint of heart. Economic growth is a real political bear.

And that’s the bear we’d like to see ambling off the ends of the poles.

Aurora Borealis mourns the melting of the North Pole.

It’s True: One Million Dollars to a Young Steady Statesman

by Brian Czech

Advancing the steady state economy takes money! Yes, there’s a tinge of irony there, but only a tinge. Money gets spent in growing, steady state, and degrowing economies. The question is, who spends it and on what?

For example, we all know Wall Street isn’t lining up to spend it on CASSE or the broader steady state movement.

Well, a new day is born. One Dick Smith has stepped to the plate and offered “$1 million to go to a young person under 30 who can impress me by becoming famous through his or her ability to show leadership in communicating an alternative to our population and consumption growth-obsessed economy.” We might call such leadership steady statesmanship.

Dick Smith is searching for a true steady statesman.

Who is Dick Smith? He was the Australian of the Year in 1986, the founder of Australian Geographic, and an Ambassador for the Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation. Evidently he’s a good fellow who made a lot of money in retailing and publishing, then turned it toward good causes instead of conspicuous consumption. A 21st century William Wilberforce, of sorts.

Here’s what Smith has to say in introducing his Wilberforce Award: “It has become obvious to me that my generation has over exploited our wonderful world – and it’s younger people who will pay the price. Like many people my age, I’ve benefited from a long period of constant economic and population growth – we are addicted to it. But sooner or later this consumption growth will have an end. We appear to be already bumping against the limits of what our planet can sustain and the evidence is everywhere to see.”

Thank goodness someone who was so immersed in the world of economic growth didn’t have their common sense drowned. “The evidence is everywhere to see,” indeed! Here’s a fellow with not only the sense to recognize the problem, but also the guts to acknowledge it. But he doesn’t stop there; he puts his money where his mouth is.

At CASSE, we encourage the younger generation (many of whom are CASSE members, volunteers, or signatories) to go for it! Practice your steady statesmanship and win the Wilberforce Award. We’ll be thinking of ways to help, but like Dick Smith, you’ll need plenty of sense and guts. You’ll be devoting a lot time, with no guarantee of compensation, and you’ll have to expose your efforts to public scrutiny to take home the prize.

Even if you don’t win, though, you can take pride in your public service. At CASSE, we may even issue an award or two of our own.

Meanwhile, may the best steady statesmanship win!

Read more about the Wilberforce Award.

Opportunity Cost of Growth

by Herman Daly

Economics is about counting costs, and the cost to be counted is “opportunity cost,” arguably the most basic concept in economics. It is defined as the next best alternative to the one chosen, in other words, as the best of the sacrificed alternatives. You chose the best alternative, the opportunity cost is the second best, the alternative that you would choose if the best were unavailable. If there were no scarcity, choice would not be necessary, there would be no opportunity cost, and economics would not exist. More of everything means opportunity cost is zero, and is essentially the denial of economics. Yet “more of everything” is the goal of so-called “growth economics.” When the whole economy grows, the growth economists say that we get more of everything. Is there an opportunity cost to the growth of the whole macroeconomy? Not in the view of mainstream macroeconomists. In their view the economy is the Whole and nature (mines wells, grasslands, fisheries, forests…) are Parts of the economy. Used up parts can be substituted by new parts; natural parts can be substituted by manmade parts; natural resources can be substituted by capital. The whole macroeconomy is not itself seen as a subsystem or part of a larger but finite ecosystem, into which the macroeconomy grows and encroaches. These economists imagine that the macroeconomy grows into the void, not into the constraining biophysical envelope of the ecosystem. Since macroeconomic growth is held to incur no opportunity cost (the displaced void is worthless!), one must conclude that “growth economics” is really not economics – it is almost the negation of economics!

Almost – there is one remaining bit of scarcity. Growth economists recognize that we can’t have more of everything instantaneously. To get more of everything we must invest and wait. The opportunity cost of investment is forgone present consumption. But it is a temporary cost. Later we will have more of everything, and after that still more of everything, etc. Is there no end to this? Not for the standard macroeconomists. In their view it might be possible to grow too fast, but never to get too big. That is, the opportunity cost of investment needed for rapid growth might be too high in terms of forgone present consumption. But that misallocation is temporary and will soon be washed away by growth itself that will give us more of everything in the future – more consumption and more investment. That is the growth economist’s theory.

However, increasing takeover of the ecosystem is the necessary consequence of the physical growth of the macroeconomy. This displacement is really a transformation of ecosystem into economy in physical terms. Trees are physically transformed into tables and chairs; soil, rain, and sunlight are physically transformed into crops and food and then into people; petroleum is physically transformed into motive force, plastics, and carbon dioxide. Thanks to the law of conservation of matter-energy, the more matter-energy appropriated by the economy, the less remains to build the structures and power the services of the ecosystem that sustains the economy. Thanks to the entropy law, the more dissipative structures (human bodies and artifacts) in the economy, the greater the rates of depletion and pollution of the remaining ecosystem required to maintain the growing populations of these structures against the eroding force of entropy. These are basic facts about how the world works. They could plausibly be ignored by economists only as long as the macroeconomy was tiny relative to the ecosystem, and the encroachment of the former into the latter did not constitute a noticeable opportunity cost. But now we live in a full world, no longer in an empty world – that is, in a finite ecosystem filled up largely by the economy. Remaining ecosystem services and natural capital are now scarce and their further reduction constitutes a significant opportunity cost of growth.

The new economic question is: Are the extra benefits of physically transforming more of the ecosystem into the economy worth the extra opportunity cost of the ecosystem services lost in the transformation? Has the macroeconomy reached, or surpassed, its optimal physical scale relative to its containing and sustaining ecosystem? Is the economy now too big for the ecosystem from the point of view of maximum human welfare? Or from the point of view of all living species and the functioning of the biosphere as we know it? If these questions about the opportunity costs of growth sound too abstract, think of the following concrete examples: wholesale extinction of species, climate change, peak oil, water scarcity, topsoil loss, deforestation, risks from more powerful technologies, a huge military to maintain access to world resources, and an increase in the risk of wars over resources, etc.

As the marginal costs of growth have increased, what has happened to the marginal benefits? Studies in the U.S. and other countries show that, beyond a threshold of sufficiency, growth in real GDP does not increase happiness. In sum, growth has become uneconomic at the margin, making us poorer, not richer. Uneconomic growth leads to less available wealth to share with the poor, not more. And such growth in the U.S. in recent years has been accompanied by increasing inequality in the distribution of income and wealth – that is, the marginal benefits of growth have gone overwhelmingly to the rich (third cars and second homes) while the marginal costs (polluted neighborhoods, unemployment and foreclosures) have gone mainly to the poor.

Surely economists have thought about such simple and basic questions as, Can the economy be too big in its physical dimensions relative to the ecosystem? And, Are the marginal costs of growth now larger than the marginal benefits? Surely economists have good answers to these obvious questions! Well, dear reader, I invite you to ask these questions to your favorite economics professor or pundit. If you get reasonable answers, please share them with me. If you get a lot of obfuscation, consider telling the economist to go to hell. Be open to learn – but also be prepared to show some disrespect when it is deserved!

Steady State Transportation: Closing the Door on the Dirty Oil Era

by Brent Blackwelder

If human civilization is to make the move to a steady state economy that provides prosperity without growth, it must meet people’s basic mobility needs without reliance on fossil fuels. The U.S. requires a revolutionary transformation of its transportation systems, and recent experience with the downsides of oil provides a potent political push to overcome inertia.


Image Credit: Neoporcupine


In the United States, the transportation sector consumes about 60% of the oil and is responsible for about one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. We use more gasoline than the next 20 nations combined. America has 2.6 million miles of paved roads with 3 cars for every 4 people in the country, and 88% of people get to work via automobile.

Concerns about global climate destabilization and dramatic water pollution have put the issue of oil usage front and center. The world has focused on the tragedy of the gigantic BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that began on April 20. But numerous other spills, leakages, and pipeline breaks have occurred since April. For example, the Enbridge pipeline ruptured the last week in July and spilled over one million gallons of oil into the Kalamazoo River in Michigan. As with BP, this recent spill was not a unique mishap but rather one in a long series of accidents and violations in Enbridge’s history.

Over the past decade, there have been over 1,600 accidents with oil pipelines in the U.S. The year 2010 is not extraordinary for its mishaps, but merely business as usual in the oil industry. It is naïve to think that Congress or state legislative bodies can tighten regulatory and enforcement regimes to solve the problem. Friends of the Earth and other environmental groups have tried this route, but oil is inherently dirty. In addition, the oil industry is politically powerful, and well-intentioned protections often fail to curtail the massive amounts of leakage and spillage in the U.S. and around the word.

To achieve optimal economic scale and a true balance with nature in a steady state economy (i.e., healthy ecosystems and a healthy economy), boldness is required, and the transportation sector is a good place to start. Ending the use of oil to power vehicles, from planes to trains to automobiles, is a must. But the power of the highway lobby and the momentum of the global jet-setting economy’s demands make this objective appear improbable.

Some encouraging signs of change, however, provide the basis for making big demands on Congress, state legislatures, and the executive branch. For example, public support for spending the preponderance of federal transportation dollars on road construction (instead of public transportation) may be cracking significantly. On July 25th the Chicago Tribune reported that for the first time, both suburban and urban citizens in the Chicago metro area think that more money ought to be spent on transit than on highways.

Another promising sign is the growth in U.S. transit ridership. Since 1996 transit ridership has increased by an average of 2.6% annually, including a 3.3% increase in 2009.

Recent economic analyses highlight the costliness of oil and automobile usage, and evidence from these analyses can drive big shifts in policy. For instance, the U.K. Department of Transport has found that for each British pound spent to reduce car usage, there are £10 of benefits in the economy from fuel savings, reduced congestion costs, and lower pollution levels.

But America lags far behind other nations in rethinking transportation systems – a quick comparison of Atlanta to Amsterdam demonstrates the gap. In Atlanta 95% of residents commute to work by car. In Amsterdam 40% commute by car, 35% bike or walk, and 25% go by transit. The series of oil spills in the U.S. this year should energize efforts in city after city to revamp transportation and breathe new life into automobile alternatives.

My brother Brion Blackwelder, who is a law professor at Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, suggests several standards that a modern 21st century transportation system should meet:

1. Zero tolerance for death and injury;

2. Congestion as a rarity rather than a daily occurrence;

3. Small footprint in terms of land use, energy use, air and water pollution, and wildlife impacts;

4. Provision of services for the young, the old, the disabled, and the poor.

Not surprisingly, the United States flunks the test of meeting these standards. Take, for example, the first. Highway accidents each year in the U.S. claim the lives of about 40,000 people, and several hundred thousand more are seriously injured. Contrast this tragic record with Japan’s bullet trains. The speedy 322-mile route from Tokyo to Osaka, completed in 1964, has not had a single passenger fatality. Today 1,360 miles of high-speed rail link all of Japan’s cities.

One way to confront the challenge posed by these standards would be to shift to mostly electric vehicles. Cars and trains could be run on electricity generated by wind, solar, and other renewable sources. For part of the 20th century, the Milwaukee Railroad operated 650 miles of electric rail over five Pacific Northwest mountain ranges on its Chicago to Seattle route.

It may come as a surprise that 100 years ago Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were so dissatisfied with the internal combustion engine that they were developing and selling all-electric cars from 1910 to 1914, when a mysterious fire burned almost all of Edison’s laboratories in December of 1914.

Now is the time to rekindle that vision, capitalize on the public’s awareness of the dirty consequences that consistently accompany our oil usage, reinforce the growing sentiment to invest in public transportation, and begin serious debate on a sustainable transportation system.

Muddled Media Messages

by Rob Dietz

With great regularity and often a touch of subterfuge, a certain message crops up in the offerings of the mainstream media. Like a powerful riptide to an unsuspecting swimmer at the beach, the message tries to grab our attention and pull it out to dangerous seas. And that message is, “Consume!” Let’s examine for a moment an ironic example.

Take a look at this recent cover from O The Oprah Magazine. At first glance, it appears to espouse an ideal compatible with a steady state economy. The banner says boldly, “De-clutter your life! It’s time to simplify things – Oprah’s starting with her closet*.” I won’t make any comments here about the quantity (or quality) of stuff in Oprah’s closet, but I will point out the riptide that’s contained in the not-so-innocent asterisk at the end of the banner. The asterisk connects to text that says, “Her bags, her shoes… Your chance to bid and win! O’s Great Online Auction.” So Oprah wants to de-clutter her life, but you should clutter yours with all her excessive stuff. Perhaps bidders can get a good deal, and perhaps Oprah is donating the proceeds to a good cause, but the underlying directive is still, “Consume!”

It doesn’t take amazing insight to recognize that consumption (and usually conspicuous consumption) is promoted in magazine articles, newspaper columns, television programs, movies, and websites. After all, most producers of mainstream media are in business because of the revenues paid by advertisers. We’re all familiar with product placements – I had equated them with the common cold. Certainly a cold is a nuisance and I’d prefer not to catch one, but I can get on with life while trying to ignore it. In contrast, the brazen blurring of lines between the story and the message to consume is more like a serious bout of the flu. It pretty much ruins the whole experience, and it can’t be ignored. The flu takes over and becomes the focal point.

I’ll provide a print example and a film example to illustrate my point. My first example comes from Newsweek. I used to be a subscriber from the late 1990s until about 2005. I found Newsweek’s writing to be adequate, even if the bulk of George Will’s columns originated from an alternate reality that occupies a dark and distorted corner of his mind. But over the course of our subscription, something started bothering me more and more until I finally had enough. I wrote a letter to the editor (perhaps unsurprisingly, it was not published) and cancelled the subscription. Each week, the magazine published a “Tip Sheet” section with an alleged purpose of reviewing the latest trends. It seemed harmless enough, but over time, it concentrated more and more on consumption of superfluous products. It read like a series of sales pitches for the latest gas guzzlers, techno trinkets and gaudy gadgets. I wondered if marketers were paying Newsweek to include their latest wares in the section – regardless of the answer, it felt like that was the case. This over-the-top use of a “news” section to hock products severely interfered with my ability to enjoy the other sections.

I like to read a good article or book as much as the next person, but I really consider myself a movie person. Pound for pound, movies pack the biggest storytelling punch of all media contenders. And I’ve seen a lot of them (especially in my more youthful days). It’s embarrassing to admit, but if there were a Useless Information Corporation, I could be the manager of the 1980s and 90s Movies Department. As a result of my time in front of the movie screen, I’ve been annoyed by hundreds (or possibly hundreds of thousands, on a more subliminal level) of product placements in movies. Consider Reese’s Pieces in E.T. and FedEx in Castaway, two of the most egregious examples, and you get the idea.

Movie sequences like these do blur the lines between the story and the advertising to some extent, but they don’t necessarily take the viewer out of the movie experience and into a sales experience. Yes, E.T. eats candy, and that might influence the viewer to eat the same candy, but the scene does play a role in advancing the plot and seems plausible – how else would a young boy entice a creature to follow him home? But over time the blurring has reached insane levels.

For the nuttiest film example I’ve seen of advertising supplanting the story, I turn to the mediocre romantic drama Love Happens. If I was feeling embarrassed about all those 80s and 90s movies I saw, let’s say I’m downright mortified by the fact that I wasted time on this film.

Love Happens stars Aaron Eckhardt as Burke Ryan, a successful self-help guru who specializes in helping people deal with the loss of loved ones. Jennifer Anniston plays his quirky love interest. One of the characters in the film is a guy named Walter. On the outside, he’s big gruff guy with a doleful demeanor; on the inside, he’s more like a big teddy bear. Walter is attending one of Burke’s multi-day seminars against his better judgment. Using all his best tricks, Burke is unable to get Walter to open up about why he’s at the seminar.

Predictably, Burke has a breakthrough with Walter and gets him to share his story. It turns out that Walter’s young son has died recently in a tragic accident, and he is struggling to piece his life back together. His relationships have blinked out of existence, and he has lost his general contracting business.

How does Burke help put Walter on the path to healing? (Cue the triumphant music) He takes Walter and the rest of the seminar attendees on a shopping spree to Home Depot. For a substantial portion of this film, the viewer is treated to smiling people cruising around the hardware store picking out all the wonderful items that a general contractor needs to get back to work. Yes sir, a solid day of shopping is really all you need to get over the death of your son. That outrageous message took me completely out of the film experience. I was stunned by this shameless attempt to couple strong emotions of redemption with the purchase of a hammer and a toolbelt.

Given the difficulty of finding a movie (or some other media product) that tells a story without trying to trick the viewer into consuming something, what’s a fan of film to do? One way forward is to make a game out of it – see how often you can spot the blurring of lines, and keep a running list of the most outlandish examples. If that doesn’t suit, you can always just tune out.

For more fun with over-the-top product placement, take a look at this list and this one, too.

Make a Steady Statement: The Latent Power of “Steady State Economy”

“Steady state economy” – it’s got a nice ring, doesn’t it? In a world of financial meltdowns, climate change, resource wars, banker bailouts, endangered species, BP, etc., the ring gets nicer by the day, no? With unpredictability and insecurity eating away at the collective peace of mind, “steady state economy” exudes stability, security, and sustainability. It’s a phrase for which the time has come!

Yet we rarely hear the phrase in the media. Some folks have already concluded that there must be something wrong with the words. They think “steady state economy” would be in widespread use already unless there was something politically fatal about the phrase. So they shy away from it like zombies from the sunlight.

I think there’s a different reason we don’t hear the media using “steady state economy.” The media simply isn’t hearing enough about it to begin with. So the bigger question is, why isn’t the media hearing about it?

Perhaps too many people have misread George Lakoff’s 2004 bestseller, Don’t Think of an Elephant! Lakoff is a brilliant linguist (which makes for good authoring), but his book set off a wave of political correctness that wimpified the country by storm. I don’t think it was Lakoff’s intention, but it’s as if the title became Don’t Think, period. Instead, just use words that will sound good to the public (in your opinion), and everyone will be happy.

But if you want to get something done, a better rule of thumb is Don’t Overthink. For example, now and then I encounter a scholar who is familiar with the literature on steady state economics, but won’t use the phrase in his or her own work, especially not in public forums where the media might catch on. Usually the reason given is that the phrase scares people, although the scholar can’t seem to put a finger on why. There are vague notions that “state” might imply communism. Part of the acronym “SSE” gives some an uneasy feeling. It’s as if World War II and the Cold War were bound to re-open if we ventured forth with “steady state economy” on our tongues!

But of course, neither not thinking nor overthinking will get us very far. I say Do Think, and don’t shrink. A great deal of encouragement and education stems from a thoughtful but clear choice of words. Innovative phrases such as “uneconomic growth” and bumper-sticker quips like “Growing the economy is shrinking the ecosystem” are valuable point-makers.

Then when they ask, “If economic growth has become such a threat, what’s the alternative?” the answer should be quick, clear and concise: “The steady state economy.” It’s no use fluffing around with “green economy” or “new economy” or even “sustainable economy,” not if you’re serious about identifying a sustainable alternative to growth. Everyone will have their take on what a “green” economy means, what a “new” economy should be, and what is “sustainable.” Despite your best intentions, you can bet your words will be framed into “green” growth, “new” growth, or the supremely oxymoronic “sustainable growth.”

Not so with the steady state economy. There’s little mistaking the key point: a steady state in the size of the economy. No one’s going to co-opt this phrase!

But you should quickly elaborate, “Neither growth nor recession are sustainable or desirable in the long run. That means the only sustainable alternative is the steady state economy.” To be safe, and to avoid a strawman retort, you should probably add immediately, “Of course, no one thinks there should be a flat-lined, stagnant economy. The steady state economy fluctuates, preferably close to an optimum size.” Tell them, just to be safe, they can call it a “dynamic steady state economy,” or a “steady state economy in dynamic equilibrium with the economy of nature.” Most people, though, will have the common sense to realize that “steady” means mildly fluctuating as opposed to flat-lining.

Similarly, it may help to remind listeners that there is no shortage, in a steady state economy, of qualitative economic developments. Trends in consumer preference, technological replacements, increasing equity… many improvements in economic conditions are likely in a steady state economy. As Herman Daly calls it, “development without growth.”

Now it’s true that “steady state economy” will never be a rhetorical flash like “You do the math” or “Do chickens have lips?” But that’s ok. The beauty of “steady state economy” is that it’s not intended to be rhetorical at all; it’s plainspoken, tell-it-like-it-is terminology. No one will accuse the speaker of political pandering or gobbledygooking their way around a serious issue. Numerous policy implications are immediately clear; fiscal and monetary levers set for growth should be pulled back carefully toward a steady state.

I conclude with a challenge to Daly News readers: Be a Steady Statesman, or woman. Damn the rhetorical torpedoes – if there really are any – and make a steady statement!

Modernizing Henry George

Filed under: Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Herman Daly — Herman Daly @ 9:29 pm

Herman DalyEconomists have traditionally considered nature to be infinite relative to the economy, and therefore not scarce, and therefore properly priced at zero. But the biosphere is now scarce, and becoming more so every day as a result of growth of its large and dependent subsystem, the macro-economy. As the macro-economy expands into the ecosystem it displaces what was there before, namely habitat of other species (and of indigenous and poor members of our own species). Consequently, biodiversity decline is a salient index of the increasing scarcity of nature, as is involuntary resettlement of people to make way for dams, mines, soybeans, and cattle; and of course increasing depletion and pollution. Sacrifice of nature’s scarce services constitutes an increasing opportunity cost of growth, and that in turn means that nature must be priced, either explicitly or implicitly. But to whom should this price be paid? Nature would prefer not to sell herself, but if forced to it by growth, would at least like to divide equally among her children the revenue from the forced sale of her previous gifts. From the point of view of efficiency it does not matter who receives the price, as long as it is counted and paid by the users. But from the point of view of equity it matters a great deal who receives the price for nature’s increasingly scarce services. Such payment is the ideal source of funds with which to finance public goods, and to redistribute to the poor.

“Value added” belongs to whoever added it. But the original value of that to which further value is added by labor and capital, the value of scarce natural resources and natural services, should belong to everyone. It is the original commonwealth. These “payments to nature” should be the focus of redistributive efforts. Payment for what is now too scarce to be treated as a free gift is measured and appropriated by markets as a rent (payment in excess of necessary supply price). Rent is unearned income to the recipient, but allocative efficiency requires that it be paid by the user of the resource. Taxation of value added by labor and capital is certainly legitimate. But it is both more legitimate and less necessary after we have, as much as possible, captured natural resource rents for public revenue.

The above seems to be the basic insight of early American economist Henry George (1839-1897) who applied it specifically to rent on the scarcity of desirable locations of land rather than to rents on natural resource scarcity in general. Could we not extend Henry George’s logic to resources in general? For resources the necessary supply price is the cost of extraction — so any payment above cost of extraction is rent. Since land has no cost of extraction all payment for land is rent. If no rent is paid, land does not cease to exist. Neoclassical economists accept this definition of rent but resist Henry George’s ethical emphasis on rent as unearned income.

The modern form of the Georgist insight is to tax the rent from land, and by extension from natural resources and services of nature, and to use these funds for fighting poverty and for financing public goods. Or we could simply create a trust fund from these rents, and disburse the earnings from it to all citizens, as in the Alaska Permanent Fund. Our present practice of taxing away a lot of the value added by individuals from applying their own labor and capital creates resentment, and discourages the supply of labor and capital. Taxing away value that no one added, scarcity rents on nature’s contribution, does not create as much resentment, and the resentment it does cause is less justified. In fact, failing to tax away the scarcity rents to nature and letting them accrue as unearned income to a landlord class has long been a primary source of resentment and social conflict. Furthermore, taxing land and resource rent does not diminish their quantity. Soviet communists tried for a while to abolish the category of rent because it represented unearned income — a part of “surplus value” like profit and interest. They jumped to the conclusion that therefore resources and land must be free. But that makes it impossible to allocate resources efficiently. Better to follow Henry George and retain rent as a necessary price for measuring opportunity cost, but to then tax it away as unearned income to the landlords. The more we tax away rent the less we have to tax the value added by human labor and capital.

Charging scarcity rents on natural resources and redistributing them to the commonwealth can be effected either by ecological tax reform, or by quantitative cap-auction-trade systems. In differing ways each would limit expansion of the scale of the economy into the biosphere, thereby preserving biodiversity and also providing revenue to run the commonwealth. I will not discuss their relative merits here, but rather emphasize the advantage that both have over the currently favored strategy. The currently favored strategy might be called “efficiency first” in distinction to the “frugality first” principle embodied in each of the policies mentioned above.

“Efficiency first” sounds good, especially when referred to as “win-win” strategies, or more picturesquely as “picking the low-hanging fruit.” But the problem of “efficiency first” is with what comes second. An improvement in efficiency by itself is equivalent to having an increased supply of the resource whose efficiency increased. The price of that resource will decline. More uses for the now cheaper resource will be made. We will end up consuming perhaps as much or more of the resource than before, albeit more efficiently, as pointed out in the nineteenth century words of economist William Stanley Jevons:

“It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical [efficient] use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.” (The Coal Question, 1866, p. 123)

We need frugality (diminished consumption) more than efficiency. “Frugality first” induces efficiency as a secondary consequence, an adaptation; efficiency first does not induce frugality — it makes frugality less necessary, and it does not give rise to a scarcity rent that can be redistributed. Let us put frugality first by reducing physical throughput with ecological tax reform and/or cap-auction-trade systems for basic resources, and by so doing both avoid the Jevons effect and collect the scarcity rents on nature for the commonwealth rather than the elite.

If we could directly limit population and per capita resource use (scale of the macro-economy) to a level that nature could easily sustain, then nature’s services could remain free. But if we insist that population and per capita consumption must be free to grow, then the rising cost of natural resources must indirectly limit growth, and the question of who receives the increasing rent (who owns nature) will become ever more pressing, and Henry George’s thinking ever more relevant. Alternatively, our increasing takeover of nature will, beyond some point, render moot the question of distribution of rents by eliminating all potential claimants! When an overloaded ship sinks all aboard drown — even if the overload is justly distributed and efficiently allocated!

New Thinking on BP Spill: Declare a Holiday!

The BP spill demands a far more significant response than ongoing cleanups, unsuccessful attempts to plug the gushing oil, and desperate efforts to mitigate the multitude of impacts from the biggest oil catastrophe in U.S. history. The BP spill demands a paradigm shift in how we run our economy and carry out our governance. Historians will one day look back on this spill as the nadir of governmental regulatory performance, in which oil companies commandeered and corrupted the Interior Department oil leasing program.  So what’s the response we need to get the paradigm shift going?  How about declaring a new holiday?

Before describing this new holiday, let’s look a little more closely at the current response.  Congress is not thinking in terms of a paradigm change either in the economy or the regulatory framework. Nor is the Obama administration. They are thinking about where oil drilling is okay and where it is not. Some Republican leaders, like Representative Barton of Texas, even accused President Obama of trying to “shake down” BP.

So instead of fundamental change, the most likely Congressional response to the BP spill will be to go back and write a new liability law for oil.

Following the tragic Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaska in 1989, Friends of the Earth was a leader in pushing for the 1990 Oil Liability Law to help safeguard against another Exxon Valdez accident. This law put in place requirements for double-hull oil tankers and new liability ceilings. Our hope was that the 1990 law would prevent bad spills and reduce spill frequency, but given the nature of enforcement (coupled with oil company attempts to flout regulations), the law was insufficient to protect the Gulf of Mexico.

This type of legislative response is too tepid to meet the challenge. The gravity of the current BP spill is the latest manifestation of the massively polluting direction of worldwide energy growth – growth that is jeopardizing the livability of our planet.

On July 5, the New York Times reported that per capita energy consumption in China is soaring as its population seeks more and bigger cars and appliances. Given that the global population stands at 6.8 billion and is headed toward 9 to 11 billion by 2050, a paradigm shift in the basis for the world economy is necessary just to head off the many tragedies that are already occurring in connection with excessive consumption, soaring population, grotesque pollution, and the obliteration of diverse ecosystems.

The economic structure must be totally reshaped to require real cost pricing for natural resources to reflect all the external costs imposed on current and future generations and on the life-support systems of the earth. We must ask ourselves serious questions that most economists don’t want to deal with. For example, what is the real cost of coal or of oil? Why is the concept of economic growth sacrosanct?

It is not just in the energy sector that we see prices failing to reflect their ecological costs, but across the food, health, and safety spectrum. What is the real cost of our food and of the animal factory slum operations that brutalize animals and shove their health and pollution impacts off on neighboring communities? What is the real condition of our topsoil and our groundwater? What is the real index of social and economic well-being, given that GDP (gross domestic product) only measures throughput in the economy with little accounting for the future?

In particular, under a new economics there would be a shift away from oil usage because the price of gasoline at the pump would be about $9 per gallon when social and environmental costs are included, not the artificially low prices we see today.

The Center for Technology Assessment published an updated estimate showing that the real cost of gasoline at the pump is between $5.60 and $15.14 per gallon if all the hidden subsidies and serious damages caused by gasoline usage were factored in. Health damages from all the air pollution caused by motor vehicles ranges between $231.7 and $942.9 billion annually, and military protection for oil supplies ranges between $55 and $96.3 billion per year.

To move us toward bigger thinking, the United States should declare an Interdependence Day. This July Americans celebrated the 234th Independence Day with fireworks galore. But the U.S. needs more ecological awareness and recognition of our interdependence with the rest of humanity and other life on this planet. On Interdependence Day we could reflect on how much we depend on others and on our environment to support us. We are on spaceship earth together and we need a spaceship economics for us to survive over the long run, not the cowboy economics that produces boom and bust cycles with some big winners and massive numbers of losers.

The gigantic economies of the United States, China, and Europe can spread air pollution and toxins all over the earth and even affect people living in remote areas. Interdependence Day would dramatize how pollution in one area harms people’s health in other areas. It would help foster consideration of the profound changes that must follow in the aftermath of the BP spill.

The future of civilization depends on moving rapidly away from an economy that glorifies jobless growth and futureless growth to a prosperous steady state economy, an economy that tells the truth about the real cost of natural resource extraction and usage.

The stewardship aspects of the economy should appeal to all the great religions of the world, and their voices are needed to counter the disinformation campaigns of the major polluters. The BP oil disaster gives citizens the platform to speak out and demand a new economics for a clean energy future and for the well-being of humanity.

Steady Staters, Futbol Fever, and NASCAR Nonsense

I am entirely addicted to watching World Cup soccer. It’s the greatest sporting event on the planet – each match is a high-stakes struggle with international intrigue and unpredictable endings. It’s hard to top the build-up and excitement of a last minute goal that means the difference between going home and moving on to the next round (see the U.S. goal against Slovenia during the group stage). But perhaps the extreme effort from Ghana against the U.S., featuring magnificent runs and fearsome goals, did exactly that. It was amazing to see the Ghana players perform, especially while carrying the hopes of an entire continent on their shoulders (or should I say feet?). Ok, so I’m a fan of the World Cup, but what does that have to do with a steady state economy?

To make the transition to an economy that supports, rather than deteriorates, our one and only home, we need to change some of the things we do. For example, it makes very little sense to continue removing the tops of mountains to extract coal and convert it to electricity and carbon dioxide in a power plant. Surely we can find ways to meet our energy needs that don’t liquidate functioning ecosystems and eons-old geologic structures while simultaneously destabilizing climate.

To have a shot at “changing some of the things we do” requires that we change our individual behaviors. Obviously we can place plenty of blame on the BPs of the corporate world, but corporations are wreaking environmental havoc because individuals, communities, and societies are demanding the products they create. If we can reduce our propensity to consume and use resources more wisely, we will be well on our way to curbing the liquidation of natural capital that comes with economic growth and all its associated consumption.

That’s what living life as a steady stater is about – making choices that meet our needs without compromising the needs of future generations. Steady staters are known for their conservation, thrift and ethics. Some might think that being a steady stater means leading a life of sacrifice and unfulfilled wants, but nothing could be farther from the truth. One’s happiness or satisfaction with life is hardly related to the quantity of material possessions owned, once basic needs for sustenance and convenience have been met. Throughout the world, researchers and citizens are coming to understand and appreciate this fact. It is altogether clear that people don’t need to consume resources wantonly to lead lives of fulfillment – in fact, one of the keys to a life of fulfillment is focusing attention elsewhere (e.g., social connections and relationships).

That brings me back to soccer. It’s known around the world as “the beautiful game.” No, it’s not the overly colorful uniforms and creative haircuts on the players that are the origins of that moniker. It’s the tempo, teamwork, and tactics. But it also has to do with the simplicity of the game: eleven players on a side, 2 goals, one ball, and one very easy to understand rule about not using your hands (following the lead of the referees in this World Cup, let’s forget about the offside rule for the time being). Soccer is a low-throughput game. You don’t need much in the way of materials or energy to play a match. That’s also one of the reasons for its global popularity – anyone can play it anywhere. It’s a steady stater sport!

Now let’s contrast the beautiful game with the number two spectator sport in the U.S. – NASCAR auto racing. This “sport” requires massive expenditures of energy and materials as racers roll around (and around and around and around) the track for 4 or 500 miles, strapped into inefficient, CO2-spewing, tire-trashing cars. Setting aside judgment about the merits of watching cars drive in a circle, mostly in anticipation of a life-threatening and auto-obliterating pileup, there is no doubt that a NASCAR race is a consumptive and wasteful enterprise. Adding insult to injury, every inch of space on the cars and the people driving them is covered by advertisements aimed at increasing consumption!

93 barrels of oil on the shore...

Soccer, NASCAR – what’s the difference? Why make a distinction when they’re both just sports, and there are so many critical problems that we ought to be working to solve? Sports are a big part of many cultures around the world – hence the popularity of the World Cup and the inclusion of sports scores and stories in just about every newspaper. Part of being human is playing games, and doing so may be especially important when we face difficult times. We can all use a little escape from some of the grim realities swirling around us. There are some games, however, that fit within the cultural and economic paradigms of sustainability, and some that don’t. Count me a futbol fan!